Of the state’s 42 seats, 22 had been received by the Trinamool Congress in 2019 and 18 by the BJP.
Kolkata:
West Bengal’s 42 seats make it the third-largest contributor of MPs to the Lok Sabha however what has made the state much more vital and attention-grabbing in these Lok Sabha elections is the keenly fought contest between the Trinamool Congress and the BJP, with neither facet keen to offer any quarter.
At NDTV’s particular present ‘Battleground’ on Saturday, hosted by Editor-in-Chief Sanjay Pugalia, a panel of consultants and spokespersons from the BJP and TMC dissected each concern that would play a task in both celebration getting an higher hand and in addition shared their ideas on what drives violence throughout elections in West Bengal.
Whereas Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee – and a Presidential-style contest between them – dominated the dialogue, the 2 different details that obtained lots of consideration had been the Sandeshkhali controversy and the welfare push by each events.
Everybody, barring the spokespersons after all, appeared to agree that the competition within the state goes to be a neck and neck one and the battle goes to be one among effective margins.
Of the state’s 42 seats, 22 had been received by the Trinamool Congress in 2019 and the BJP had made big inroads and achieved victory in 18. Removed from resting on its laurels, the BJP has been relentless in its quest to extend its vote share since then, however the Trinamool Congress has additionally fought tooth and nail to carry on to its turf.
Pointing to how razor-thin the margins are within the state, Sanjay Kumar, Professor on the Centre for the Examine of Creating Societies (CSDS) mentioned, “West Bengal is a state the place the regional celebration may be very robust however the BJP is placing up a fierce contest. The BJP has defeated the Congress in lots of states nevertheless it appears to be on the again foot relating to contesting in opposition to regional events, however Bengal is an exception. I feel there’s a neck-and-neck battle. It is a battleground in the actual sense.”
“There’s a contest in each seat. In 2019, the distinction in vote share between the events was simply three per cent. The distinction in seats was additionally of solely 4. If the votes swing by 2 per cent both means… if the BJP’s vote share goes up by 2-3 per cent, the TMC can lose 7-8 seats and if the alternative occurs and the BJP loses 4-5 per cent of votes it may be decreased to single digits,” he mentioned.
Including thus far, political strategist Amitabh Tiwari mentioned there have been 22 seats in 2019 the place the margin of victory was lower than 10% or 1 lakh votes – and these had been cut up evenly between the TMC and the BJP. “So there’s positively a ‘kaante ki takkar’ (a neck-and-neck-fight) and this has turn into a seat-by-seat contest,” he mentioned.
‘Violence Vitiates Society’
Mr Pugalia identified there’s a dichotomy within the sense that whereas Bengal is taken into account a pacesetter when it comes to tradition and self-respect, it is usually one of the vital violent states relating to political violence. To this, political analyst Swapan Dasgupta mentioned the violence is a legacy of the Left, which dominated Bengal for many years and even the Trinamool was a sufferer of this when it was combating the CPM.
“A few of these rough-and-ready strategies, sadly, have turn into the brand new regular in West Bengal and I feel that is one thing that, no matter which facet you favor, there must be unanimity on stopping the violence. This vitiates society,” he mentioned.
Pointing to an attention-grabbing statistic, Mr Dasgupta mentioned no nationwide celebration has ever received a majority of seats within the Lok Sabha from West Bengal since 1971. He additionally mentioned that caste, along with class – which was the CPM’s dominant narrative – has made an entry in Bengal in 2019.
How Necessary Is Sandeshkhali?
Requested how vital a task the problem of Sandeshkhali – the place there have been allegations of land seize, rape and sexual harassment in opposition to a Trinamool strongman and his aides – might be within the elections, Amitabh Tiwari mentioned this is dependent upon how a lot the BJP could make it pervade the general public consciousness.
“In 2019, Mamata Banerjee and the TMC had extra of a lead in opposition to the BJP amongst girls voters than amongst males. The lead was roughly 4 per cent amongst girls as in opposition to 2 per cent amongst males. This concern may turn into vital as a result of help amongst girls has been a powerful level of the TMC,” he mentioned.
The point out of Sandeshkhali sparked a heated debate between TMC Spokesperson Riju Dutta and BJP Spokesperson and West Bengal State Secretary Priyanka Tibrewal, particularly since Saturday was when a sting video by a non-public channel went viral by which a BJP chief purportedly says that no rapes or sexual harassment had taken place and ladies had been satisfied to file such complaints on the instructions of senior celebration chief Suvendu Adhikari.
The BJP chief, Gangadhar Koyal, has claimed that his voice was edited and has additionally despatched a grievance to the CBI.
Firing the primary volley, Mr Dutta mentioned the BJP has “by no means understood and can by no means perceive the various, pluralistic, democratic ethos of Bengal”.
“In a sting, a BJP block president is saying that the celebration’s Chief of the Opposition Suvendu Adhikari has paid Rs 2,000 to those girls to file pretend rape circumstances relationship 7-8 months again. Are you able to think about what a concocted conspiracy that is to defame Bengal. The BJP can debate until the cows come residence that that is morphed however that is what their leaders are saying,” he mentioned.
Ms Tibrewal countered that Mamata Banerjee had initially mentioned that the victims had been mendacity and alleged the Trinamool Congress might have spent some huge cash to ensure the video went viral.
“The courtroom has requested the CBI to probe this (Sandeshkhali allegations) and, in a listening to on Thursday, mentioned there are similarities between the CBI report and the victims’ affidavits. This exhibits that such incidents have taken place there. A minimum of 750 affidavits got and the TMC needs to say 750 individuals are mendacity. Mamata Banerjee’s speak of nari shakti (girls energy) stands uncovered right this moment,” she mentioned.
When Mr Pugalia requested pointedly whether or not one thing occurred in Sandeshkhali, Mr Dutta mentioned, “Errors had been made in Sandeshkhali. Excesses occurred. However Sandeshkhali is a land concern. Some folks misused the Trinamool image and grabbed land. However the politics being carried out on girls’s our bodies, that by no means occurred. That has been uncovered right this moment. We have now suspended the Trinamool chief and others have been thrown out of the celebration however Brij Bhushan Sharan Singh and Prajwal Revanna are nonetheless stars for the BJP.”
Mr Kumar of the CSDS mentioned the problem of Sandeshkhali has most likely resonated extra amongst city, upper-class voters and never a lot among the many poorer lessons, which is a big vote base for the Trinamool Congress. “I’m not moving into what’s true and what is not, however I do not suppose it can have a big affect on the vote,” he mentioned.
‘Integral A part of INDIA Bloc’
To a query on why the TMC was combating alone in West Bengal and never as a part of INDIA alliance, Mr Dutta mentioned his celebration is an integral a part of the INDIA bloc and is with them.
“However we’re with INC, the Indian Nationwide Congress, and never ARC, which is Adhir Ranjan Congress, as a result of Adhir Ranjan Chowdhury is the conduit pipe of the BJP in Bengal. He was BJP’s ears and eyes and now he’s working as a direct agent of the BJP,” he alleged.
“In consequence, when Mamata Banerjee, Rahul Gandhi, Sonia Gandhi, Sitaram Yechury are having conferences in Delhi with the one goal of defeating the BJP, Adhir Ranjan Chowdhury is abusing Mamata Banerjee and the Trinamool Congress. And that’s the reason we have now mentioned that, in Bengal, the TMC is the INDIA alliance. I’ll say this on file: No matter seats the BJP goes to get within the 2024 common elections, TMC goes to get at the least double of that,” the celebration spokesperson mentioned.
Conflict Of The Titans?
On the problems in Bengal, Sanjay Kumar mentioned that whereas subjects like unemployment and inflation are key, like they’re in different states, the battle in Bengal revolves round Mamata Banerjee to some extent.
Utilizing the favored identify for the chief minister, ‘Didi’, Mr Kumar mentioned, “It is about whether or not you want Didi or not. Identical to the competition within the nation revolves to a big extent round Prime Minister Modi. We are sometimes requested whether or not the 2024 election is a presidential one, I say it is not. It is a referendum in a means. In Bengal, it is whether or not you’re with Didi or in opposition to her. When this type of politics occurs, the problems additionally get buried to some extent,” he mentioned.
Mr Dasgupta mentioned that the TMC would need the main focus to be on native points and mentioned the BJP can fall into the lure of claiming Mamata Banerjee must be eliminated. “If the BJP forgets it is a nationwide election, about Prime Minister Narendra Modi – and sadly one or two BJP folks have forgotten that – (then it could actually fall into the lure),” he mentioned.
Senior Journalist Nishtha Gautam mentioned her evaluation from talking to folks of all hues in Kolkata factors to one thing unusual having occurred prior to now decade. “PM Modi and Ms Banerjee have emerged as doppelgangers of one another. The scenario in West Bengal – Modi’s ensures vs Mamata’s ensures – it’s precisely the identical points. The expansion is going on with out jobs, doles are being given out. If we speak about welfarism, each leaders have weaponised it very effectively for electoral positive aspects.”
“Some voters say they hate Mamata Banerjee, they do not need her however what’s the different? They do not even need Modi ji to have a stronger footprint. It is rather unusual.”
Different consultants additionally felt that the draw of the leaders and the robust welfare schemes will play a giant function however conceded that emotional components and last-minute selections may also make the choice swing on the final second.
Six of Bengal’s 42 seats have voted to date and other people from the state will solid their ballots in all remaining phases as effectively, till June 1. The outcomes might be declared three days after that.
