Within the twentieth century, america vied with the Soviet Union for area supremacy. Now, within the new century, America has a distinct rival — China — and a key battle is already brewing within the vital space of satellite tv for pc navigation (satnav). Proper now, the U.S. is falling behind.
Whereas GPS was as soon as the undisputed king of satnav (and a key instrument of American smooth energy), it now has a rising checklist of World Navigation Satellite tv for pc Methods (GNSS) opponents – from China’s BeiDou to the European Union’s Galileo, Russia’s GLONASS and even India’s regional system, NavIC.
With out query, essentially the most vital rival comes from China, because the nation is actively searching for to displace GPS because the world’s dominant satnav system and, in so doing, to extend its personal smooth energy affect on the nations that use it. The Nationwide House-Primarily based Positioning, Navigation and Timing Advisory Board (PNTAB) warned that “GPS’s capabilities are actually considerably inferior to these of China’s BeiDou” and urged the U.S. to regain PNT management over the subsequent decade.
Why the U.S. is falling behind
Whereas China and the EU have been investing closely of their GNSS techniques, the U.S. navy is solely making modest enhancements to GPS.
The U.S. is at the moment changing Nineties-era GPS satellites with newer GPS 3 satellites. Nevertheless, GPS 3 isn’t a trailblazing expertise. Initially supposed to launch in 2014, these satellites provide solely average enhancements to GPS 2, comparable to an upgraded accuracy of 1 to three meters. That is lower than what Galileo can present. GPS 3 will finally be adopted by GPS 3F, which is predicted to supply extra capabilities comparable to the primary utterly digital navigation payload. Nevertheless, GPS 3F might take till the mid-2030s to be accomplished.
The navy’s next-generation PNT system, often called NTS-3, continues to be solely within the R&D part, with the primary take a look at satellite tv for pc to deploy no ahead of late this yr. It’s unclear how lengthy it can take earlier than NTS-3 is absolutely operational.
BeiDou’s benefits over GPS
With 56 satellites in orbit, China’s BeiDou is now almost twice the dimensions of GPS. It additionally has over ten instances as many monitoring stations, lots of that are in creating nations.
BeiDou’s bigger dimension is a vital benefit over GPS. A Belfer Heart report notes that BeiDou’s bigger constellation provides higher PNT knowledge availability and, in some instances, higher accuracy in lots of areas of the world. That is particularly the case within the creating international locations in Africa and Southeast Asia which have been traditionally underserved by GPS. Nikkei Asia reported in 2020 that BeiDou “eclipses” GPS in 165 international locations.
China additionally has bold plans to reinforce BeiDou’s accuracy, safety and reliability even additional, partly by launching low-Earth orbit (LEO) constellations and by implementing new inertial sensors and future applied sciences like quantum navigation.
The dangers of non-U.S. satnav supremacy
Whereas the U.S. and Europe are pursuing a extra cooperative strategy to GNSS, China sees it as a zero-sum sport tied to its bigger geopolitical technique.
As has been famous by a number of worldwide affairs organizations, BeiDou is now a vital ingredient of China’s Belt and Street Initiative, which goals to extend the nation’s smooth energy affect, technological management and financial relationships throughout key areas to the detriment of its rivals.
From the U.S. standpoint, China’s so-called House Silk Street, or area info hall, poses vital dangers. The first concern is that in supplanting GPS’s place because the dominant world satnav service, BeiDou will erode America’s political and financial affect in key areas. Establishing GNSS dominance will consolidate China’s maintain on world infrastructure, creating new and stronger dependencies on Chinese language applied sciences, infrastructure, providers and diplomacy in numerous areas. As BeiDou-integrated applied sciences turn into extra embedded inside a rustic’s infrastructure and financial system, China’s affect will enhance on the expense of U.S. affect. In future diplomatic, commerce or navy disputes, these international locations will likely be extra weak to intimidation. China might threaten to chop off entry to this very important service, which might have a major impression on a rustic’s satnav capabilities, particularly if it isn’t utilizing multi-constellation infrastructure. The U.S. is already shedding affect in key strategic areas like Africa the place nice energy competitors is growing over such points as uncommon earth minerals.
The U.S. can also be involved that China might use BeiDou as a platform for conducting espionage and different malicious actions inside these international locations. Whereas the satellite tv for pc system itself is unlikely for use this manner, there’s a potential threat with Chinese language-made receivers and different tools. A key a part of China’s BeiDou system is putting in Chinese language-supplied floor monitoring stations and Steady Working Reference Stations, particularly in creating international locations. In response to the Belfer Heart report, 11 sub-Saharan nations have already obtained China’s reference stations, whereas one other 4 international locations (Saudi Arabia, Pakistan, Indonesia and Myanmar) have licensed set up. These ground-based techniques and interconnected Chinese language GNSS receivers might in concept comprise backdoors and different malicious capabilities that may very well be utilized by China’s authorities (or, to supply believable deniability, its firms) to hold out espionage, surveillance, knowledge theft, interference and cyber assaults.
America is dealing with a pivotal second with the splintering of GNSS and the rise of China’s GPS competitor. If BeiDou’s progress isn’t matched by GPS or another U.S. service, it can have a major impression on American world smooth energy and the position of the U.S. in figuring out the requirements and rulemaking for key rising applied sciences.
Whereas the U.S. is making an effort to replace GPS, it’s already at a definite drawback to BeiDou by way of world PNT knowledge availability, and shortly it might fall behind BeiDou in general accuracy, sign power and safety. Whereas the U.S. does have a rising variety of industrial companions with LEO communications satellites in orbit, which might turn into efficient GPS alternate options, there are determined disadvantages to counting on for-profit as an alternative of public GPS — an important of which is value. Except the U.S. strikes rapidly to prioritize GPS innovation, the technological steadiness of energy might shift towards China.
Sean Gorman is the CEO and co-founder of Zephr, a developer of next-gen location-based options. Gorman has spent greater than 20 years as a researcher, entrepreneur, tutorial and material knowledgeable within the discipline of geospatial knowledge science and its nationwide safety implications. He’s the previous engineering supervisor for Snap’s Map group, former Chief Strategist for ESRI’s DC Improvement Heart, founding father of Pixel8earth, GeoIQ and Timbr.io, and held different senior positions at Maxar and iXOL. Gorman served as a subject knowledgeable for the DHS Vital Infrastructure Process Pressure and Homeland Safety Advisory Council; he’s briefed the NSA, CIA, DIA, White Home, TSA, NGA and the Federal Reserve; and he’s been awarded two DARPA analysis contracts. He’s additionally a former analysis professor at George Mason College.
