The worldwide semiconductor manufacturing trade closed 2024 with sturdy fourth quarter outcomes and stable year-on-year (YoY) progress throughout a lot of the key trade segments, SEMI introduced at the moment in its This autumn 2024 publication of the Semiconductor Manufacturing Monitor (SMM) Report, ready in partnership with TechInsights. The trade outlook is cautiously optimistic at first of 2025 as seasonality and macroeconomic uncertainty might impede near-term progress regardless of momentum from sturdy investments associated to AI purposes.
After declining within the first half of 2024, electronics gross sales bounced again later within the yr leading to a 2% annual improve. Electronics gross sales grew 4% YoY in This autumn 2024 and are anticipated to see a 1% YoY improve in Q1 2025 impacted by seasonality. Built-in circuit (IC) gross sales rose by 29% YoY in This autumn 2024 and continued progress is anticipated in Q1 2025 with a 23% improve YoY as AI-fueled demand continues boosting shipments of high-performance computing (HPC) and datacenter reminiscence chips.
Just like electronics gross sales, semiconductor capital expenditures (CapEx) decreased within the first half of 2024 however noticed a powerful rebound, significantly within the fourth quarter, leading to 3% annual progress by the tip of 2024. Reminiscence-related CapEx continued to steer the expansion surging 53% quarter-on-quarter (QoQ) and 56% YoY in This autumn 2024. Non-memory CapEx additionally edged up in This autumn 2024 exhibiting 19% QoQ and 17% YoY enchancment. Whole CapEx is anticipated to stay sturdy in Q1 2025, rising 16% relative to the identical interval of the earlier yr on the energy of investments to help excessive bandwidth reminiscence (HBM) capability additions for AI deployment.
The semiconductor capital tools section remained resilient primarily on account of elevated investments into increasing modern logic, superior packaging and HBM capability. Wafer fab tools (WFE) spending elevated 14% YoY and eight% QoQ in This autumn 2024. Quarterly WFE billings are anticipated to be round $26 billion in Q1 2025. China’s funding continues to play a major position within the WFE market however began to subside by finish of the yr. Moreover, back-end tools confirmed sturdy will increase in This autumn 2024 with the Check section logging 5% QoQ progress and a powerful 55% YoY improve for the quarter, whereas the Meeting and Packaging section skilled a YoY improve of 15%. Each segments are anticipated to indicate comparable QoQ progress between 6-8% in Q1 2025.
In This autumn 2024, put in wafer fab capability surpassed a report 42 million wafers per quarter worldwide (in 300mm wafer equal), and capability is projected to succeed in practically 42.7 million in Q1 2025. Foundry and Logic-related capability continues to indicate stronger will increase, rising 2.3% QoQ in This autumn 2024, and the section is projected to rise 2.1% in Q1 2025 pushed by capability growth for superior nodes. Reminiscence capability elevated 1.1% in This autumn 2024 and is forecasted to stay on the similar degree in Q1 2025 pushed by sturdy demand for HBM.
“Regardless of seasonality and the challenges of macroeconomic uncertainty, momentum in AI-driven investments continues to gasoline growth throughout key segments, together with reminiscence, capital expenditures, and wafer fab tools,” mentioned Clark Tseng, Senior Director of Market Intelligence at SEMI. “Trying ahead for 2025, the trade stays cautiously optimistic, with sturdy progress prospects pushed by ongoing demand for high-performance computing and information middle buildout.”
“As we start the yr, our expectation is for stronger efficiency within the second half, with semiconductor gross sales anticipated to stay flat sequentially within the first half, adopted by a notable double-digit improve within the latter half,” mentioned Boris Metodiev, Director of Market Evaluation at TechInsights. “Stock challenges persist for discrete, analog, and optoelectronic producers, which is able to must be addressed earlier than we will count on widespread progress to renew.”
The Semiconductor Manufacturing Monitor (SMM) report supplies end-to-end information on the worldwide semiconductor manufacturing trade. The report highlights key traits based mostly on trade indicators together with capital tools, fab capability, and semiconductor and electronics gross sales, together with a capital tools market forecast. The SMM report additionally accommodates two years of quarterly information and a one-quarter outlook for the semiconductor manufacturing provide chain together with main IDM, fabless, foundry, and OSAT firms. An SMM subscription contains quarterly studies.
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