Why Does BJP Need A Change In Polling Date In Haryana?

The Bharatiya Janata Occasion’s (BJP) state unit has requested the Election Fee of India (ECI) to vary the polling date in Haryana, citing issues {that a} lengthy weekend may have an effect on voter turnout. The Congress has accused the BJP of fearing a loss and utilizing the request as an excuse to delay the election. In response, the BJP has asserted its readiness for elections on any date. The Indian Nationwide Lok Dal (INLD) has additionally supported the BJP’s demand for a date change.

The ECI’s state unit has forwarded the applying to Delhi and is awaiting a response. Haryana is scheduled to vote on October 1 (Tuesday), together with the third and closing section of voting in Jammu and Kashmir, with outcomes to be introduced on October 4.

Lengthy Weekends

Provided that September 28-29 are weekends and October 2-3 are holidays (for Mahatma Gandhi Jayanti and Maharaja Agrasen Jayanti), an individual who takes go away on September 30 may take pleasure in a six-day break, together with polling day, which can also be a public vacation.

Haryana’s urbanisation stage was 28.9% in keeping with the 2011 census, a determine more likely to have elevated with the enlargement of the Nationwide Capital Area (NCR). Fourteen districts of Haryana are a part of the NCR, together with key city centres equivalent to Gurugram, Faridabad, Rohtak, Sonipat and Bhiwani.

The BJP historically performs effectively in city areas. A few of these cities even have a excessive migrant inhabitants, which could use the prolonged break to go to their properties, probably affecting the BJP’s efficiency. Traditionally, rural turnout has been greater than city turnout basically elections, although the hole has diversified through the years.

Within the 2024 normal elections, rural turnout was 67.9% in comparison with 57.9% in city areas. Whereas rural turnout fell by round 3 share factors from 2019, city turnout dropped by roughly 7 share factors. In 2024, the turnout fluctuated throughout 4 weekend phases, with a rise seen in two phases and decline within the different two.

Turnout Issues

The BJP acknowledges that decrease turnout negatively impacted its efficiency within the 2024 normal elections. The shortage of enthusiasm amongst key leaders, employees, and supporters contributed to the social gathering falling in need of a majority, as famous within the inner UP ballot report.

A excessive turnout is essential for the BJP’s success. From 1996 to 2019, the BJP fashioned the central authorities 5 occasions, with elevated turnout in 4 of those cases. Regardless of boasting the title of the most important social gathering on the planet and having a community of panna pramukhs (every managing 30 voters), the BJP apprehends that if some voters go for trip as an alternative of voting, this benefit may very well be diminished.

In response to the BJP’s demand, the Congress has dismissed the issues as an indication of nervousness. Deepender Hooda posted on X (previously Twitter) that the BJP’s request for a date change is an excuse to delay the elections, reflecting its lack of substantive points, achievements, or candidates for all 90 seats.

Restricted Scope

The BJP has requested a deferral of the elections, proposing a change in dates or an extension of the polling interval. With October 2 and October 3 being holidays and October 4 reserved for outcomes, the complete polling course of for Jammu and Kashmir and Haryana should be accomplished by October 6. There’s restricted scope for suspending the polls; if the ECI considers a change, it might need to advance the date, which the BJP would doubtless oppose.

The election is shaping as much as be extremely polarised, with Jats, a dominant social group within the state, supporting the Congress and non-Jats backing the BJP. Within the 2024 normal elections, the BJP received all 5 Lok Sabha seats in non-Jat dominated areas. The social gathering is robust in city areas like Faridabad, Ambala, and Gurugram, successful 22 of its 40 seats within the 2019 Vidhan Sabha elections.

City-Rural Divide

The BJP’s concern is that some voters might use the prolonged weekends for holidays, which may affect turnout. This case highlights the rising inequality between city and rural India, as city voters usually tend to afford holidays in comparison with their rural counterparts.

In Haryana, Jats, who’re predominantly farmers, have been disillusioned by the Centre’s response to their protests. The Congress is working to consolidate a Jat-Dalit-Muslim alliance in rural areas. The BJP’s lack of 5 out of 10 Lok Sabha seats in 2024 in comparison with 2019 suggests it’s on the defensive.

Within the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, the BJP led in 44 meeting segments, whereas the Congress led in 42, and the Aam Aadmi Occasion (AAP) in 4. In 2019, the BJP led in 79 seats however received solely 40 within the subsequent Vidhan Sabha polls held six months later. Because the social gathering faces ten years of incumbency, it goals to deal with all potential points, together with the election date, to safe a beneficial final result.

Whether or not the ECI will accommodate this request stays to be seen.

(Amitabh Tiwari is a political strategist and commentator. In his earlier avatar, he was a company and funding banker.)

Disclaimer: These are the non-public opinions of the writer