Because the Iranian revolution in 1979, the US has not developed a long-term technique towards Iran however as a substitute has made tactical strikes to take care of the varied conflicting points with Tehran as they arose. Conversely, from the time the clergy assumed energy, Iran has developed a long-term technique restricted not solely to staying in energy but in addition to turning into the area’s hegemon with out inviting main navy retaliation by both the US or Israel on Iranian soil. It’s time for the US to develop an efficient long-term technique to cease Iran in its tracks by taking particular measures that don’t purposely search regime change however could properly precipitate such a change.
The US technique must be based mostly on the creation of a crescent of allied states stretching from the Gulf to the Mediterranean, the place the US would broaden its military-to-military, financial, and political cooperation with Center Japanese nations, together with the six Arab Gulf nations, Jordan, Israel, and Egypt. The lacking hyperlink is the “State of Palestine,” which I’ll handle under. The belief of the US geostrategic goal will a) freeze Iran’s regional ambitions and its affect over the Arab states and b) forestall Iran from increasing its navy cooperation with Russia and business ties with China, thus limiting their affect and imprint within the area to counterbalance the US’ near-dominance. To that finish, the US should take a number of geostrategic measures because the constructing blocks that might result in the institution of the allied crescent.
First, the Biden administration should handle Iran’s goal to oust the US navy presence within the Center East, which might permit it to have a freer hand in difficult and intimidating US allies within the area and allow it to extend its affect and status. The Biden administration must disabuse Tehran of the notion that the US’ so-called pivot to the East isn’t and won’t occur on the expense of lowering the American navy presence within the Center East, by constantly increasing safety collaboration with its allies all through the area. President Biden’s choice to dispatch two plane carriers to the japanese Mediterranean within the wake of the Israel-Hamas battle was a sensible strategic transfer that despatched a transparent message to Iran, Russia, and China that the US is set to maintain the Center East below direct American sphere of affect each politically and militarily.
Second, Iran funds and supplies navy {hardware} and coaching to its ‘axis of resistance,’ together with Hezbollah in Lebanon, the Houthis in Yemen, and Kataib Hezbollah in Iraq, to assault US navy installations. Oblique talks between the US and Iran in Oman on January 10, specializing in the rising threats posed by the Houthis to Purple Sea transport routes and the assaults on US navy bases in Iraq and Syria by militia supported by Iran, failed to succeed in an settlement. Whereas Iran proclaimed to don’t have any management over the Houthis, its consultant on the talks acknowledged that his nation might use its affect to make sure that all assaults would cease, offered that the US organized for a ceasefire in Gaza. Being the principle provider of navy {hardware} to the Houthis, together with missiles and drones, it’s clear that Iran can, if it chooses, cease the Houthis from attacking ships within the Purple Sea and should achieve this unconditionally; in any other case, it will likely be held accountable and bear extreme penalties for its refusal to cease the Houthi assaults.
Iran makes use of these teams to do its soiled work. American retaliation towards these teams is a worth Tehran is “glad” to pay so long as it doesn’t endure casualties of its personal and prevents a direct American assault, particularly on its nuclear services and different main navy trade complexes. The Biden administration should warn Tehran that given its undisputed navy and financial help of its militia, the US will view future assaults on any American navy or civilian property as an assault by Iran and that the US won’t hesitate to straight assault Iran’s much-prized property.
Third, Iran doesn’t wish to begin a battle with the US, understanding full properly that the US, with its far superior navy energy, might inflict a devastating blow that might carry down the regime. On this regard, the Biden administration mustn’t state again and again that the US doesn’t wish to wage battle towards Iran. Although the US has no plan to assault Iran and presumably desires to mitigate Tehran’s considerations about regime change, reiterating this repeatedly makes the clergy really feel safer of their energy, and thus, they are going to proceed to destabilize the area by their proxies, “the axis of resistance,” and their direct interference within the inside affairs of a number of Center Japanese nations, together with Iraq, Syria, and Yemen, and achieve this with near-impunity.
Fourth, Iran views Israel because the impediment in its quest for regional hegemony. Figuring out, nevertheless, that Israel is extra highly effective militarily and enjoys US safety ensures, Iran seeks to neutralize Israel’s nuclear functionality by reaching its personal nuclear threshold. On this regard, the Biden administration ought to warn Iran that whereas the US continues to be open to negotiating a brand new nuclear deal, which might result in a extra amenable and constructive relationship, Washington won’t keep idle ought to Iran produce an operational nuclear weapon. This might additionally alleviate the considerations of these Israelis who’re genuinely frightened about Iran’s nuclear program.
Fifth, regardless of the truth that Hamas, Iran’s second most vital proxy after Hezbollah, stands to doubtlessly be crushed by Israeli forces, Tehran doesn’t need Hezbollah to interact Israel militarily on a big scale however solely present some solidarity with Hamas by firing short-range rockets on Israeli targets on a restricted foundation. Iran desires to forestall Israel from invading Lebanon and inflicting huge losses on Hezbollah as a result of it desires to order Hezbollah’s navy functionality for a distinct contingency, particularly if Iran is straight hit by the US and or Israel. The US ought to make it clear to Iran that the persevering with provides of weapons to Hezbollah, together with drones, is considered as threatening and provocative and can end in imposing extra crippling sanctions.
Sixth, Iran doesn’t need different Arab states, particularly Saudi Arabia, to normalize relations with Israel, as this can open the gates of normalization of relations with a lot of the Arab states, in addition to many Muslim nations. The US ought to fastidiously think about Saudi Arabia’s 4 necessities in trade for the normalization of relations with Israel: the institution of a Palestinian state, guaranteeing the Saudis’ nationwide safety, offering Riyadh with a nuclear growth program for peaceable functions, and permitting the Saudis to buy superior American navy tools. Reaching an settlement with Saudi Arabia based mostly on its necessities would be the forerunner for the institution of the allied crescent from the Gulf to the Mediterranean.
Seventh, President Biden should start the method of building an unbiased Palestinian state, which he has constantly asserted in current months. Hamas’ October seventh assault on Israel, which led to the continued Israel-Hamas battle, reaffirmed that the occupation isn’t sustainable and that Israel should come to phrases with the institution of a Palestinian state, which is the lacking hyperlink for the creation of the allied crescent. Past that, the institution of a Palestinian state will pull the rug from beneath Iran, which has been exploiting the Israeli-Palestinian battle because the rationale behind its vehement refutation of Israel’s proper to exist.
To that finish, the Biden administration ought to develop a long-term technique designed to restrict Iran’s regional affect by pursuing a brand new regional paradigm based mostly on what I typically outlined above. The US, which already has a large navy presence within the Center East, should now transfer to broaden that right into a regional safety alliance. Primarily based on my analysis and contacts within the area, each nation talked about above welcomes such an alliance, as they see it because the cornerstone of regional stability. The US ought to make it clear that the brand new alliance isn’t meant to threaten Iran, and in reality, the allied states would cooperate with Tehran on regional safety and develop in depth business ties if it selected to turn out to be a constructive participant.
To make sure, the Iranian clergy should perceive that “enterprise isn’t as normal.” But when they want a perpetual enemy – the US and Israel – to rally the general public to remain in energy, they should be ready to face the implications.
