Decoding Congress’s Haryana Election Technique

The Congress occasion is gearing up for the Haryana meeting elections, which can be held on October 5 with outcomes introduced on October 8. The occasion is finalising its candidate record and has determined to not announce a chief ministerial candidate, opting as an alternative for a mixed management mannequin.

The Congress has additionally resumed talks with the Aam Aadmi Get together (AAP) relating to a possible alliance. Though the 2 beforehand contested the 2024 common elections collectively, early indications advised they might go their very own methods within the meeting polls.

Assured after its robust efficiency within the common elections, the place it matched the Bharatiya Janata Get together (BJP) with 5 seats every, the Congress believes it has an excellent likelihood in state elections.

Within the common elections, the BJP led in 44 meeting segments, the Congress in 42, and the AAP in 4. By way of vote share, the BJP obtained 46%, the Congress 44%, and the AAP 4% votes.

No CM Face to Curb Factionalism

After the CEC assembly on Monday, Congress chief Ajay Singh Yadav introduced that the occasion wouldn’t venture a chief ministerial candidate for the upcoming Haryana meeting elections. The ultimate determination on the chief ministership can be made by the excessive command after the elections.

AAP Rajya Sabha MP Sanjay Singh emphasised that defeating the BJP ought to be the precedence for the INDIA bloc. He famous that the occasion’s Nationwide Basic Secretary (Group) Sandeep Pathak would interact in talks with Congress if the proposal gained momentum. “The ultimate determination can be made by Arvind Kejriwal,” Singh instructed reporters.

AAP’s Haryana chief, Sushil Gupta, acknowledged his private opinion that the occasion shouldn’t accept 4 to 5 seats however left the ultimate determination to Delhi Chief Minister and AAP Nationwide Convenor Kejriwal. Experiences additionally point out that AAP Rajya Sabha MP Raghav Chadha is concerned in back-channel negotiations with Congress management.

Interesting To Broad Teams

Presently, former Haryana Chief Minister Bhupender Singh Hooda is main the Congress effort, however a faction together with Kumari Selja and Randeep Surjewala is reportedly sad with Hooda consolidating energy.

Kiran Choudhury, who was a part of this faction, left the occasion for the BJP after her daughter was denied a ticket within the Lok Sabha elections. The choice to not announce a chief ministerial candidate is seen as a transfer to curb factionalism and attraction to a broader voters.

This technique goals to keep away from a Jat versus non-Jat contest. The Congress, underneath Hooda’s management, is perceived as representing Jat pursuits. The BJP has exploited Jat versus non-Jat dynamics to its benefit in earlier polls. Congress is specializing in a coalition of Jats, Dalits, and Muslims. Dalits, who make up 20% of the inhabitants, are essential. Kumari Selja’s function as a Dalit face and the non-announcement of a CM candidate assist keep hope throughout the Dalit group.

In accordance with a CSDS post-poll research, 64% of Jats and 68% of Dalits voted for the INDIA bloc within the 2024 Lok Sabha elections. The Congress hopes this determination will assist retain the vast majority of Dalit votes.

Doable Alliance With AAP

The Congress-AAP alliance carried out properly within the common elections, profitable 5 seats and securing a 48% vote share. Though AAP contested the Kurukshetra Lok Sabha seat and misplaced, it led in 4 meeting segments and garnered a 4% vote share. The AAP’s solo run might break up the opposition vote and doubtlessly profit the BJP.

The Congress goals to keep away from a repeat of the 2019 situation when the Jannayak Janata Get together (JJP), led by Dushyant Chautala, seemingly spoiled its possibilities. The JJP’s 10 seats, largely from Jat-dominated areas, harm the Congress’s prospects.

Each events initially deliberate to go solo, however last-minute discussions on the excessive command degree revived talks. The AAP is reportedly demanding 10 seats, whereas the Congress is at present providing two to a few.

The Bania group, comprising 4% of the inhabitants, Aroras/Punjabis/Khatris (7%), and Sikhs (5%) are vital demographics in Haryana. The AAP has pockets of affect amongst these teams in Delhi and Punjab and is predicted to achieve some assist in Haryana as properly.

Within the 2024 common elections, the BJP led in 19 of 23 city seats, whereas the Congress led in solely 4. In rural Haryana’s 60 seats, the Congress led in 34, and the BJP in 22. The AAP is believed to have appreciable affect in city areas, significantly these bordering Delhi and Punjab, the place Congress’s weak seats are positioned.

This technique permits Congress to concentrate on strengthening its place in its robust Jat-dominated area whereas leveraging AAP’s affect in weaker areas to maximise positive aspects within the meeting elections.

(Amitabh Tiwari is a political strategist and commentator. In his earlier avatar, he was a company and funding banker.)

Disclaimer: These are the private opinions of the creator