In a serious reshuffle of his cupboard, President Vladimir Putin is about to relieve Sergei Shoigu, Russia’s defence minister of 12 years, of his submit and appoint him as secretary of the Safety Council, a place beforehand held by Nikolai Patrushev since 2008.
The transfer has prompted hypothesis amongst Kremlin watchers, intrigued by what might have led to the shock transfer, and what it means for Shoigu, Patrushev and Andrei Belousov, the deputy prime minister and economist set to turn into Russia’s new defence minister.
Shoigu is named a Putin loyalist, the pair having been photographed on many a manly fishing expedition via the depths of Siberia collectively, and has led the Russian armed forces all through their invasion of Ukraine.
Belousov’s appointment is anticipated to be confirmed by the Federation Council this week.
“Immediately, the winner on the battlefield is the one who’s extra open to innovation, extra open to implementation as shortly as attainable,” Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov informed the press. “It’s pure that on the present stage the president determined that the Ministry of Defence must be headed by a civilian.”
Observers stated the reshuffle is a sign that Russia has no plans to finish its struggle on Ukraine, now in its third 12 months.
“This means that the Kremlin isn’t in search of an exit from Ukraine, however as soon as to increase their means to endure the battle so long as attainable,” stated Jeff Hawn, a doctoral candidate and visitor trainer on the London College of Economics’s worldwide historical past division. “Russia could be very restricted [on] how a lot they will enhance scale, on account of financial deficiencies. Nonetheless, they will preserve a sure stage of attritional warfare. And are possible hoping to do this longer than Ukraine can.”
Shoigu will quickly maintain the deputy president position of the Navy-Industrial Fee. He may even head the Federal Service for Navy-Technical Cooperation (FSVTS), which is accountable for navy {hardware} dealings with different international locations.
“With an economist taking on the Defence Ministry, and the previous minister taking on a coverage and advisory position, the technocrats are within the ascendant. The objective although isn’t peace, however a extra environment friendly struggle,” Mark Galeotti, the writer of a number of books on Putin and Russia, wrote in The Spectator. “As Putin digs in for the long run, with the ‘particular navy operation’ now being the central organising precept of his regime, he is aware of he wants technocrats to maintain his struggle machine going.”
Putin’s decree additionally removes the FSVTS from the Ministry of Defence, leaving Shoigu solely answerable to the president himself.
“In simply over two years of the particular navy operation [in Ukraine], Sergei Shoigu has however outgrown the extent of the minister of defence when it comes to his skilled stage,” Alexander Mikhailov of the Bureau of Navy-Political Evaluation, a Russian defence assume tank, informed the state-run TASS information company, noting Shoigu’s stage of worldwide experience and expertise overseas.
Navy professional Rob Lee wrote on X, “This doesn’t seem like designed as a demotion for Shoigu, who not solely obtained an essential place as Secretary of the Safety Council but additionally will retain oversight of home and overseas defence points.”
“The large loser on this shuffle seems to be Patrushev, who was additionally one of many key decisionmakers behind the invasion of Ukraine.”
It’s but unclear the place Patrushev’s new project can be.
Nonetheless, Shoigu’s new placements will not be the promotions they appear.
The reshuffle comes lower than a month after Deputy Defence Minister Timur Ivanov was arrested on bribery fees.
“The Safety Council is turning into a reservoir for Putin’s ‘former’ key figures – who can’t be let go, however there isn’t any place to deal with them,” political analyst and founding father of R.Politik, Tatiana Stanovaya, wrote on Telegram, referring to the current turbulence in Shoigu’s profession.
Ivanov loved a popularity for an opulent way of life and has been accused of pocketing funds meant for the reconstruction of the battle-ravaged Ukrainian metropolis, Mariupol. Stanovaya additionally pointed to current disputes with Rostec, the state-owned arms producer Shoigu accused of gradual work, and the fallout from final 12 months’s Wagner mutiny.
“Putin thereby makes it clear that the reference to the earlier place will stay, that continuity is essential – fairly in his spirit,” Stanovaya continued. “However all that is extra paying homage to a need to take Shoigu out of the sport in order to not offend, with most honours. Not as a result of he’s a good friend, however as a result of it’s safer for Putin himself. Similar to it occurred with Medvedev in January 2020. Apparently, that is how the Safety Council justifies its personal identify: to make sure safety from former heavyweights who’ve nowhere else to settle and can’t be thrown out.”
Who’s Andrei Belousov?
Like Shoigu, Belousov is also called a Putin loyalist and eager proponent of presidency spending, thought to have been behind the controversial Worth Added Tax (VAT) enhance in 2019.
“One in all Putin’s most extravagant appointments is the Keynesian economist Belousov as defence minister,” stated Andrei Kolesnikov, a senior fellow on the Carnegie Endowment for Worldwide Peace. “It’s now essential for Putin to be sure that the big sums of cash spent on struggle usually are not stolen.”
“Belousov is not only a performer [of tasks], he has his personal imaginative and prescient in his head of how the Russian financial system ought to operate, and he brings it to life as finest he can,” a supply near the Kremlin informed impartial Russian information outlet The Bell.
One other added that, in 2014, he was the one economist near Putin at the moment who supported the annexation of Crimea.
“I’ve identified Andrei Belousov, the brand new Russian defence minister, for a few years,” stated economist Konstantin Sonin in a prolonged submit on X, including that they don’t take pleasure in a relationship now. “The brand new adjustments – Belousov as an alternative of Shoigu at Defence [Ministry], Shoigu as an alternative of Patrushev in Safety Council – is an ideal illustration of our ‘degenerate autocracy’ concept.
“Issues usually are not going based on Putin’s plan, however he’ll endlessly rotate the identical small group of loyalists. Putin has at all times feared to deliver new individuals to the positions of authority – even in the very best of occasions, they should have been nobodies with no personal views. In the direction of the tip of his rule, much more so.”
