West Africa’s ‘coup belt’: Did Mali’s 2020 military takeover change the area? | Politics Information

4 years in the past this month, a gaggle of Malian troopers descended on a navy base in Kati, near the capital Bamako, arrested their most senior leaders, and seized weapons from the armoury.

Shortly after, they stormed Bamako in vehicles, the place they detained then-President Aboubakar Keita, as Malians jubilated within the streets. The August 18, 2020, coup d’etat got here after weeks of protests towards Keita who confronted calls to resign, amid accusations that his authorities was corrupt and did not clamp down on an armed rise up within the nation’s north waged by teams linked to al-Qaeda and ISIL (ISIS). The brand new navy authorities promised to deal with the fighters swiftly.

That August marked an finish to eight years of political stability in Mali, the place between 2012 and 2020 there have been no navy takeovers in an space that was coup-prone. The takeover additionally stamped the beginning of a political ripple within the wider West Africa area that has since seen different civilian governments fall.

“We largely noticed civilian rule strengthening in Africa up till that second, and I believe that the Mali coup was a essential juncture within the weakening of that norm,” mentioned Dan Eizenga of the United States-based Africa Heart for Strategic Research (ACSS). The slew of coups is paying homage to the Nineteen Eighties-Nineteen Nineties when African nations newly liberated from colonial rule confronted a barrage of rebellions.

“I don’t suppose you’ll discover one other 4 years that has seen so many coups and counter-coups since [that time],” Eizenga informed Al Jazeera.

Right here’s how the Malian coup unfolded, and a timeline of the navy takeovers which have since adopted:

Coup inside a coup

After efficiently dethroning Keita, Colonel Assimi Goita, the now 41-year-old particular forces soldier who led the coup, was put in as vp of a transition authorities, and civilian Bah Ndaw as president. The joint council promised to carry elections in 18 months. Nonetheless, an influence wrestle quickly erupted between the 2 sides, as every tried to wield extra affect.

On Could 24, 2021, Ndaw reshuffled the cupboard, eradicating navy leaders who had been key to the August coup. Later that day, the navy arrested and despatched Ndaw to the navy base in Kati. Hours later, Goita introduced on public tv that Ndaw had tried to “sabotage” the transitional authorities and was thus eliminated. He declared himself president and prolonged navy rule to June 2022.

Goita has continued to increase the transition. This Could he pushed elections to 2027, after holding a “nationwide dialogue” – a referendum boycotted by most political events.

Coup season

Between August 2020 and August 2024, West and Central Africa skilled no less than 10 coup makes an attempt.

Guinea

First was Guinea. On September 24, 2021, octogenarian President Alpha Conde was booted out of presidency by Captain Mamady Doumbouya, the then 41-year-old head of an elite Particular Forces unit created by Conde. The president had triggered widespread anger after he compelled a constitutional change that will enable him to hunt a 3rd time period in workplace after which cracked down brutally on protesters who have been towards the transfer. Some Guineans swarmed into the streets in celebration as information of Conde’s fall filtered out. The navy is about at hand over to a civilian authorities by December 2024.

Burkina Faso

In Burkina Faso insecurity spilling over from Mali, its neighbour, was intensifying after the coup. Massive swaths of Burkinabe territory fell to the armed teams, placing strain on the civilian authorities of Roch Marc Christian Kabore. There was rising common dissatisfaction as nicely with France, a former colonial energy, throughout Francophone West Africa. Though 1000’s of French troops deployed in Mali and Burkina Faso, insecurity remained excessive.

On January 24, 2022, Kabore was deposed in a coup led by then 41-year-old Lieutenant Colonel Paul-Henro Damiba, an officer well-known for his success main offensives on the entrance line. Nonetheless insecurity ranges worsened following the takeover, and the nation misplaced 40 % of its territory to the armed teams by 2023. The Burkinabe military additionally suffered big defeats on the battlefront, inflicting anger within the navy.

On September 30, 2022, Damiba’s authorities was overthrown by a gaggle of troopers led by then 34-year-old Captain Ibrahim Traore. In Could 2024, Traore pushed elections again by 5 years.

Niger

On July 26, 2023, Nigerien President Mohamed Bazoum was detained by prime military officers led by the chief presidential guard, Normal Abdourahamane Tchiani. Niger shares borders with Mali and Burkina Faso and can be within the throes of an insecurity disaster. Nonetheless, it’s believed Tchiani was about to be relieved of his put up, prompting the takeover.

Weeks earlier than, on July 9, the regional Financial Neighborhood of West Africa States (ECOWAS) bloc had appointed Nigeria’s new President Bola Tinubu as chairman. In his speech, Tinubu promised to cease coups within the area – trying to challenge stronger management as coup after coup appeared to shrink ECOWAS’s affect.

Tinubu convened a unprecedented assembly of West African leaders instantly after the Niger coup. ECOWAS suspended Niger, shut its borders, lower electrical energy and demanded that Bazoum be reinstated. All 15 nations besides Cape Verde dedicated troops for a doable “navy intervention”.

After the ECOWAS standby power was activated on August 10, tons of in Nigeria took to the streets in protest, denouncing a doable warfare amid an financial disaster at residence. Communities on the Nigeria-Niger border additionally referred to as for dialogue. In the meantime, Mali and Burkina Faso introduced they’d militarily defend Niger within the case of an ECOWAS invasion, and shaped their very own Alliance of Sahel States (AES). Tensions within the area finally calmed after Tinubu soft-pedalled and dominated out an ECOWAS assault.

Gabon

Hours after early morning bulletins that President Ali Bongo Ondimba had, once more, received within the Central African nation’s elections, the navy stormed the nationwide broadcaster on August 30, 2023. The coup, led by Brigadier Normal Brice Oligui Nguema, successfully ended the Bongo household’s 56-year rule. Nguema, who can be Bongo’s cousin, was put in as president of the transitional authorities on September 4, regardless of international condemnation of the coup. Elections are scheduled to be held in August 2025.

Failed makes an attempt

There have been two failed makes an attempt to oust President Umaro Sissoco Embalo’s democratically elected authorities in Guinea Bissau. The primary was in 2022. It’s unclear who led the assault that was quelled by the navy. The second, in December 2023, was allegedly instigated by Colonel Victor Tchongo who headed the Nationwide Guard.

In Sierra Leone, a dramatic shootout within the capital on the morning of November 26, 2023, was later confirmed to be a failed coup. It has been linked to former president Ernest Bai Koroma who’s now exiled in Nigeria. His bodyguard and ex-military officer Amadu Koita was handed an 182-year sentence in July.

Army reshuffles

A day after the Gabon coup in August 2023, then-90-year-old President Paul Biya of Cameroon, who has led the nation since 1982, promptly reshuffled senior navy officers, putting in new leaders accountable for defence, air power, navy and police divisions.

Earlier, in June 2023, Rwanda’s authorities introduced President Paul Kagame’s dismissal of two senior commanders within the navy, a day after the Minister of Defence Albert Murasira and a slew of different prime officers have been changed. Two days later, the Rwandan military additionally introduced that just about 300 troopers have been both dismissed, sacked or had their contracts revoked. Rwandan Defence and Army spokesperson, Brigadier Normal Ronald Rwivanga informed native journalists the affected troopers confirmed “gross misconduct” like drunkenness or insubordination and that there was “no worry” of a coup.

Goodbye France, whats up Russia

The a number of coups got here amid rising common resentment of France in Francophone nations, the place many accuse Paris of neocolonial tendencies, pointing to the widespread presence of French companies, and the continued pegging of the widespread CFA forex to France’s euros, for instance.

For the reason that takeovers in Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger, the navy governments have performed up these populist emotions, casting Paris in a poor gentle, and severing ties. They’ve pressured international forces to go away, resulting in the withdrawal of 1000’s of French and American troops that have been as soon as positioned throughout the area, serving to to battle armed teams. The French navy fully pulled out of the Sahel between 2022 and 2023. Bamako additionally demanded {that a} 15,000-man United Nations peacekeeping mission (MINUSMA) go away final December.

In the meantime, all three have turned to Russia for strategic help.

A whole lot of fighters from Wagner, a mercenary group now rebranded as Africa Corps, and working as part of the Russian authorities, are on the entrance traces in Mali and Burkina Faso. There isn’t any proof of Wagner fighters in Niger but, however Niamey agreed in January to step up safety cooperation with Russia.

Nonetheless, insecurity ranges solely seem to have worsened within the nations, with the Sahel now recording surging violence ranges. There have been 11,200 recorded deaths, principally in Burkina Faso (68 %), and triple the depend from 2021, in line with ACSS findings.

“Correlation shouldn’t be causality,” the Africa Heart’s Eizenga mentioned, referring to the corresponding spike in deaths and violent occasions within the three nations trackers have recorded since 2021, the interval proper after the primary Mali coup. “And I’m not saying that the armies triggered the insurgencies, however I’m saying their strategies will not be serving to, they’re solely making issues worse.”

America and human rights teams have accused Wagner troops, alongside the Malian and Burkinabe armies, of gross human rights violations and focusing on civilians within the strongholds of armed teams. In line with analysis from Eizenga, extra folks have been focused by authorities troops than by the armed teams, a situation that pushes extra folks to hitch the insurgent teams out of anger, he mentioned. Media organisations have additionally been muzzled, opposition events silenced and activists jailed. In Burkina Faso, authorities critics have been forcefully conscripted into the military.

The Russian presence within the area has prompted fears of wider battle. In Mali, authorities troopers are additionally focusing on Tuareg separatists within the north who’ve lengthy been preventing for an impartial Azawad state. In a latest assault that noticed a number of Malian troopers and Russian troops killed, Ukraine hinted that it helped the rebels with intelligence.

“Actually, that has all the time been the sport plan or grand technique of each the West and the East to assault one another’s curiosity on the continent,” mentioned Festus Kofi Aubyn, a researcher with the West Africa Community for Peacebuilding (WANEP) in Ghana. “As soon as Russia has succeeded in driving away the West within the Sahel, we should always anticipate retaliatory assaults on Russian pursuits as nicely.”

Is ECOWAS in charge?

The regional ECOWAS bloc has splintered because the AES states introduced their withdrawal from the bloc in January. ECOWAS has lifted its suspensions, softened its stance and inspired the AES states to return to the fold, however with out success. Nigeria’s Tinubu, in addition to a number of different older presidents, have even designated Senegal’s new younger President Bassirou Diomaye Faye as a mediator together with his fellow younger “brothers”.

Specialists lay a lot of the blame for a way the area has descended right into a tangled mess of coups, mercenary fighters and violence hotspots at ECOWAS’s toes. The bloc, underneath the earlier chairmanship of Ghana’s Nana Akufo-Addo, was not agency sufficient after the primary coup in Mali and didn’t instantly react with punishment sturdy sufficient to discourage others, some say.

ECOWAS additionally did not closely punish civilian presidents from searching for third phrases and allowed the “civilian coups” that triggered navy intervention, like within the case of Guinea.

“The dearth of coherent and constant response by ECOWAS emboldened the coup-makers to behave with impunity,” WANEP’s Aubyn mentioned.