Russia’s nuclear menace to area is worse than a “Cuban Missile Disaster in area”

On June 20, Home Intelligence Committee Chairman Mike Turner (R-Ohio) warned that the USA is getting ready to a “Cuban Missile Disaster in area” if Russia operationalizes a nuclear-armed satellite tv for pc weapon. In actuality, it could possibly be much more harmful. Right now’s Russia is extra paranoid and determined than the Soviet Union was in 1962. In 2024, the U.S. has extra to lose and fewer choices to counter Russia’s transfer. On this so-called Cuban Missile Disaster in area, the U.S. should rigorously stability deterring a reckless Russia whereas avoiding actions that would provoke catastrophic penalties. 

By contemplating the variations between these eventualities, we are able to see how the U.S. has fewer good choices and Russia is extra harmful. 

Distinction #1: Russian desperation

Might 1960: The Soviet Union, fearing the U.S. would attempt to invade Cuba and overthrow Fidel Castro, positioned medium and intermediate-range nuclear missiles to defend the nation.

The Soviet Union within the Sixties was a worldwide superpower, and noticed the U.S. as a rising energy and a menace to Soviet hegemony. Inserting missiles in Cuba was a defensive transfer. 2024 Russia is a declining energy searching for to alter the status-quo. If Russia have been to position a nuclear weapon in area, it will be an offensive transfer to focus on U.S. satellite tv for pc methods and threaten the U.S.-led order. Russia in 1962 was a bear guarding its territory with incentive to guard the forest. The Russian bear in 2024 is wounded and ravenous. It has little to lose and is keen to do something to outlive.

Distinction #2: U.S. credibility

October 22, 1962: In a dramatic 18-minute tv speech, President John F. Kennedy shocked Individuals by revealing “unmistakable proof” of the missile menace in Cuba. He introduced that the U.S. would stop ships carrying weapons from reaching Cuba, whereas demanding that the Soviets withdraw their missiles. 

Within the Sixties, the U.S. held a strategic missile benefit that allowed Kennedy to threaten the Soviet Union with a recreation of rooster. Right now, the U.S. has a strategic benefit on Earth, however not in area. Monetary constraints crippled Russia’s area endeavors, resulting in fewer payload launches, and the U.S. now has a significant lead in area. With extra to defend and fewer to assault, the U.S. should rigorously average its actions to keep away from a catastrophic Russian response.

Distinction #3: U.S. choices

October 23, 1962: U.S. Ambassador Adlai Stevenson defined the matter to the U.N. Safety Council as U.S. ships moved into place round Cuba.

President John F. Kennedy established a blockade of Cuba and engaged diplomatically with the Soviet Premier. Ultimately, the 2 reached a compromise: the U.S. withdrew missiles from Turkey and promised to not invade Cuba, and the Soviet Union dismantled the missiles on Cuba. In contrast to the Port of Havana, nevertheless, you can not blockade a spaceport. 

Barring a dangerous interception or a strike on the launch facility, a nuclear co-orbital satellite tv for pc will attain its designated orbit. Kennedy thought of a spread of choices, from doing nothing (ineffective at greatest, harmful at worst), to a full scale invasion of Cuba (most dangerous), to a naval blockade (the least dangerous possibility). If Russia launches its nuclear armed satellites, 2024 U.S. may have fewer choices at its disposal than 1962 U.S. had.

The ineffective choices (ignore the Soviet missiles in Cuba)

• Do nothing: Russia is a declining energy determined to regain its misplaced standing. However Russia’s decline can’t be solved by threatening U.S. area belongings. If the U.S. appeases Russia, it will enter a endless cycle of dangerous habits and appeasement.
• President-to-President diplomacy: Given the struggle in Ukraine and presidential elections in November, direct diplomacy at this degree is probably going off the desk.
• Financial sanctions: Russia most likely views sanctions as a nuisance, whereas it sees its geopolitical place as an existential disaster. At greatest, sanctions may have little to no impact. At worst, they’ll exacerbate Russia’s decline, probably resulting in much more reckless habits.

The riskiest possibility (a full invasion of Cuba)

• Destroy the satellite tv for pc in orbit: The U.S. probably lacks the offensive cyber capabilities to neutralize the satellite tv for pc in orbit. A direct ascent anti-satellite assault is feasible however extremely dangerous. Just like the Soviets would retaliate dealing with a U.S. invasion, dealing with a “use it or lose it” state of affairs, Russia would possibly resolve to set off the weapon fairly than watch or not it’s destroyed.

The least dangerous choices (impose a naval blockade round Cuba)

• Low degree diplomacy: The administration is at present reaching out to Moscow to barter an off-ramp previous to launching the satellite tv for pc. Russia is a declining energy, so time is on the U.S.’s facet.
• Worldwide diplomacy: China, India, and the UK all have important satellites in the identical orbit as Russia’s take a look at satellite tv for pc. Presenting a united entrance might deter Russia the place a single actor can’t.

This isn’t your father’s Cuban Missile Disaster. Right now’s Russia, a declining energy with existential anxieties, is extra unpredictable and keen to take dangers that would destabilize world area belongings. The U.S. faces a extra constrained set of responses in comparison with the daring strikes obtainable throughout the Chilly Battle. Finally, the U.S. should stop a catastrophic escalation whereas preserving the soundness and safety of area, an more and more important area for all of humanity. 

Daniel Duchaine is a Fellow on the Middle for Area Governance and the Area Governance and Energy Fellow at Al Fusaic. He’s at present a Authorities Relations Affiliate at Utilized Analysis Associates (ARA). The views expressed listed below are his alone and don’t replicate these of Utilized Analysis Associates.

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