Opinion: NDA's "400 Paar" Vs INDIA's "At Least 295" – Lesson For Congress?

Exit polls are, on the finish of the day, simply that – not the actual factor. Whereas the numbers flashing on TV screens from exit polls for Lok Sabha 2024 give a staggering victory, well past 300, to the BJP, and near or over 400 for the NDA, the opposition debunks all of them and places forth its personal prediction – 295 for the INDIA alliance.

The numbers apart, even when we had been to low cost the dimensions and merely take the route indicated by the exit polls put out by information organisations and polling businesses, there are three key strategic failings the opposition should settle for. A kind of is clear within the INDIA alliance’s personal 295 quantity.

First, whereas the INDIA bloc largely managed a cohesive marketing campaign on state-by-state native discontent and dodged a presidential-style persona conflict with Prime Minister Narendra Modi, there was an inherent danger in that technique. It articulated the financial and agrarian discontent in some key states, however was extra depending on native arithmetic and never constructing a nationwide chemistry. It didn’t have a concrete face as the answer to the issue it states of a categorical robust face in energy. The Congress’s manifesto supplied promise, however who was the face who would ship that promise? It was damned if it did have a PM candidate and damned if did not, earlier than the elections.

In states like Karnataka and Telangana, the place the Congress swept meeting polls, its marketing campaign revolved round categorical chief ministerial faces. It is a sign that an anti-Modi political cohesion couldn’t persuade the citizens of a secure and robust provide of change and a persona to drive it. Even within the so-called opposition optimistic states, like a Karnataka or a Telangana, this was a weak spot.

The second, even in a state-by-state technique, there was not a single, massive or medium, direct Congress versus BJP state the place the Congress might declare to defeat the BJP on all or nearly all seats. For example, even in Karnataka – which is presumably the Congress’s strongest state now – essentially the most fairly optimistic projection from analysts, and lots of throughout the occasion, was 10-15 seats. The occasion couldn’t declare that it’s going to completely reverse the BJP’s 2019 efficiency of 25/28.

When the BJP broadcasts a sweep, it truly is one. Even in Maharashtra, whereas most observers and lots of exit polls point out a revision from the BJP-Sena sweep of 2019, the opposition MVA might by no means declare a complete sweep of even, say, 40 of 48. This, even though Uddhav Thackeray is with the Congress now. A sweep of the sort a DMK alliance might declare in Tamil Nadu, or the Congress might declare in opposition to the Left in Kerala, is absent anyplace else.

Arguably, the above two failings are mirrored within the 295 determine put out by the INDIA bloc, and that’s the third issue. The opposition’s quantity displays a calculated combination of various levels of efficiency in particular person states, each for the Congress and its allies.

It might be argued that the quantity doesn’t replicate the boldness of a nationwide sweep. Then again, the BJP’s narrative was an amazing nationwide sweep. Whereas on the grassroots it labored on a state-by-state technique, the general narrative was a nationwide, “we’re sweeping” script starring the Prime Minister. Regardless of financial and social foundations for a robust narrative, the opposition couldn’t persuade itself, not to mention the citizens, of a nationwide reverse sweep of the dimensions the BJP projected. This can be, finally, the success of the “400-paar” marketing campaign.

There was an excessive amount of repetition of the 2004 victory as an argument for the potential of a win even with out a PM face. Sadly, the realities have modified and after a decade of rule underneath one robust persona, the concept of a coalition might not appear a reliable resolution, not but. The Congress must do the heavy lifting within the Hindi Heartland and within the direct BJP combat states; it wants to point out it may possibly sweep one or two.

If. And it is a massive If, the exit polls numbers maintain true, then it is a south japanese jolt for the INDIA alliance and establishment, at greatest a continuum, within the north and west. A lesson, maybe, that arithmetic is vital, however nationwide cohesive chemistry with a face to narrate is crucial. Particularly with a Prime Minister who appears to have it in spades and a celebration that has mastered the artwork of changing it into numbers.

(TM Veeraraghav is Government Editor, NDTV)

Disclaimer: These are the non-public opinions of the writer.

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