From Tariff Revisions to Subscriber Dips: A Chronological Overview

The Telecom Regulatory Authority of India (TRAI) launched the Telecom Subscription Knowledge as of August 31, 2024, on Friday. This marks the second consecutive launch of subscriber information following the tariff revision introduced in July, efficient July 3, 2024. Based on the TRAI information for July and August 2024, the outcomes are clear: apart from BSNL, each telecom operator, together with personal gamers and the biggest telco identified for including wi-fi subscribers, has skilled a decline in wi-fi subscribers. This development has been attributed to the tariff revisions, main customers to gravitate towards BSNL, which has not carried out any tariff hikes.

Additionally Learn: BSNL Not Contemplating Tariff Hike Anytime Quickly, CMD Says: Report

BSNL’s Place within the Market

In reality, BSNL has been aggressively advertising and marketing its No Tariff Hike Plans on social media and selling its 4G Community bulletins. Based on a latest report, the BSNL CMD talked about on the launch of the brand new branding that the corporate just isn’t looking for any tariff will increase and is concentrated on buyer satisfaction. Total, BSNL’s subscriber development is being attributed to its No Tariff Hike coverage and the optimistic sentiment surrounding its PAN India 4G Community launch. This sentiment has been echoed throughout the business.

Timeline of Tariff Bulletins

With that in thoughts, let’s look at how this example has unfolded, together with the timeline, subscriber numbers, and key factors that can assist us perceive one thing.

June 27: Surprisingly, Reliance Jio was the primary to announce a tariff revision in 2024. Whereas no particular causes had been supplied, the brand new charges had been set to take impact on July 3. Subscribers would additionally take pleasure in limitless 5G on pay as you go plans of 2GB per day and above.

June 28: Airtel adopted go well with with its tariff revision, emphasising that the cell Common Income per Person (ARPU) must exceed Rs 300 to make sure a financially wholesome enterprise mannequin for telecom firms in India. As of This fall FY24, Bharti Airtel holds the very best cell ARPU within the nation at Rs 209.

With these tariff will increase, Airtel believes that attaining this ARPU stage will facilitate substantial investments in community expertise and spectrum whereas additionally offering a modest return on capital. Subscribers would additionally take pleasure in limitless 5G on pay as you go plans of 2GB per day and above.

June 28: Put up-market hours on Friday, Vodafone Thought (Vi) quietly uploaded a press launch confirming its tariff revision to the change, formally confirming the tariff revision.

July 3: The revised tariff hikes for all three personal telcos—Bharti Airtel, Vodafone Thought, and Reliance Jio—got here into impact.

Whereas India witnessed these tariff revisions with personal operators, BSNL didn’t announce any hikes. Frankly, BSNL has nothing to compete with when it comes to revising tariffs, missing a PAN India 4G, VoLTE, or 5G community. Thus, it doesn’t make sense for BSNL to comply with the personal operators and lift its tariffs.

Up to now, BSNL has been actively asserting Cellular Quantity Portability (MNP) and new subscriber additions via its social media channels. Evidently customers are porting to BSNL in massive numbers as a consequence of its aggressive tariffs and the anticipation of upcoming 4G companies.

Learn Extra – Bharti Airtel Proclaims Revised Cellular Tariffs: Test Full Particulars

September 20: TRAI launched Telecom Subscription Knowledge as of July 31, 2024. Based on this information, BSNL was the one telco so as to add 2.93 million (2,931,971) wi-fi subscribers, whereas Airtel misplaced 1.69 million (-1,694,300), Vodafone Thought misplaced 1.41 million (-1,413,910), and Jio misplaced round 0.76 million (-758,463) wi-fi subscribers. This marked the primary occasion of wi-fi information from the regulator following the tariff revisions, revealing a mixed subscriber lack of roughly 3.86 million for Airtel, Vodafone Thought, and Jio.

October 26: On Friday, TRAI launched the Telecom Subscription Knowledge as of August 31, 2024. The information once more confirmed that BSNL was the one telco to realize subscribers, including 2.53 million (2,532,854) wi-fi subscribers. In distinction, Airtel misplaced 2.41 million (-2,409,102), Vodafone Thought misplaced 1.87 million (-1,874,376), and Jio misplaced 4.02 million (-4,018,879) wi-fi subscribers. This marked the second consecutive month of declining wi-fi subscribers for all personal telcos following the tariff revisions, with a complete mixed lack of round 8.3 million subscribers.

June 2024 Subscriber Metrics

To know the subscriber metrics from the earlier month, simply earlier than the tariff revision, we are able to take a look at the TRAI Knowledge as of June 30, 2024. In June 2024, BSNL and Vodafone Thought had been the one telcos that misplaced wi-fi subscribers. We will put aside Vi, because it has been on a steady subscriber loss streak. Airtel gained 1.25 million wi-fi subscribers, Vodafone Thought misplaced 0.86 million wi-fi subscribers, BSNL misplaced 0.75 million, and Jio gained 1.91 million wi-fi subscribers. This sample has endured for a while.

Quick ahead to the present situation, and every little thing has modified: BSNL is the one telco gaining subscribers, credited to the tariff revisions.

Time Length

Analyzing the timeline, the revised tariffs from personal telcos had been introduced on the finish of June (on the twenty seventh), with an efficient date of July 3. TRAI’s subscriber information for July is as of the thirty first of that month, permitting for a 28-day buffer interval.

Cellular Quantity Portability (MNP)

Let’s additionally overview the MNP request information reported by TRAI. In Might 2024, 12 million subscribers submitted requests for MNP. This quantity barely decreased to 11.84 million in June, whereas July noticed a rise to 13.68 million and August noticed 14.66 million MNP requests.

TRAI’s report solely mentions the MNP requests with out additional readability. It doesn’t specify whether or not these are simply SMS requests obtained, what number of had been processed, and what number of had been denied or failed. Thus, we assume this information is inadequate to substantiate if these are literally processed requests or merely requests obtained from prospects. Even when we think about all of those requests as processed, they don’t correspond carefully to the subscriber additions. Nonetheless, the MNP request numbers do present a modest improve in July and August in comparison with Might and June.

Quantity Lively Standing

Telecom firms usually comply with a selected timeline to discard unused or non-recharged numbers, particularly after the obligatory service validity required even to obtain incoming calls. In some circumstances, even that coverage just isn’t adhered to, and numbers stay lively for incoming calls with none lively recharges. Primarily based on private expertise, a quantity in a non-recharge state can stay lively for prolonged intervals with out being deactivated inside only one month.

Assumptions

Contemplating the 28 days left in July following the tariff revision’s efficient date, it’s troublesome to imagine that 3.86 million numbers had been lowered instantly in July, adopted by 8.3 million wi-fi subscribers in August from personal telcos. Even when thousands and thousands of shoppers stopped recharging after the tariff revision information, the chance of their numbers being discarded instantly is almost zero.

The reported wi-fi subscriber numbers counsel that customers haven’t recharged their accounts for a very long time and are ready for the tariff revisions to be discarded from the system. Even when we assume that a few of these circumstances are correct, earlier months’ additions inform a unique story. Furthermore, even contemplating the potential for MNP, the numbers don’t align. Due to this fact, we’re left with speculative assumptions in regards to the accuracy of the reported numbers.